ASSOCIATED PRESS
MINNEAPOLIS -- As a recount in the Minnesota governor's race nears completion with no evidence that it will change the outcome, the Republican candidate and his party face a critical decision: whether to contest the result in court or step aside and let Democrat Mark Dayton take office.
A lawsuit from Tom Emmer offers one obvious benefit. It likely would keep GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty in office beyond his appointed term, giving the party more power when the state's Legislature convenes next month under Republican control for the first time in decades. But some worry that it also risks damaging the party's image if the lawsuit appears to be nothing more than a stalling maneuver to keep Dayton out.
Several influential Republicans are warning that unless new information emerges to question the integrity of the election, Emmer should concede soon to avoid hurting the party. It's not an easy decision, especially in a polarized political environment where both sides had legal teams in place even before the election to prepare for a contested outcome.
"Unless there's real solid evidence of malfeasance, you have to abide the recount," said Vin Weber, a Washington lobbyist and former Republican congressman from southwestern Minnesota. Weber, who was an early supporter of Emmer's and helped legitimize the inexperienced state legislator's candidacy, said he hasn't seen any circumstances that would justify Emmer suing to overturn Dayton's lead.
Charlie Weaver, executive director of the GOP-aligned Minnesota Business Partnership, a coalition of chief executives of large Minnesota employers, said many of Emmer's donors in the business community wouldn't support an extended challenge. Republican Norm Coleman's lawsuit over the 2008 U.S. Senate result wound up costing both sides an estimated $10 million total in legal fees.
"There's very little appetite for funding an effort that would be seen as futile," Weaver said.
Dayton went into the recount leading Emmer by nearly 9,000 votes, and a recount that may end as early as this weekend has barely shifted the margin. A state board begins meeting Dec. 8 to examine possibly thousands of ballot challenges, though most have been deemed frivolous by local election officials.
Dayton's big lead makes it a different situation than the state's 2008 U.S. Senate race between Democrat Al Franken and Republican Norm Coleman, or even the Bush-Gore race of 2000, both of which led to extensive litigation. Aside from Minnesota's race, the only other unsettled midterm election is New York's House race between Democratic Rep. Timothy Bishop and the GOP's Randy Altschuler, which Bishop leads by a little more than 200 votes as a recount progresses.
In Minnesota, Emmer's legal team and allies have keyed on "reconciliation," a statutory requirement that officials in each precinct make sure that the number of votes cast matches the number of people who signed in to vote. That apparently wasn't done in some precincts, and Emmer's legal team unsuccessfully sought a state Supreme Court ruling that it be done prior to the recount. They have hinted that it could be the basis for a post-recount lawsuit.
"There's definitely some issues that merit review, that could alter the outcome of the election," GOP Chairman Tony Sutton said this week.
Emmer said a lawsuit decision would be his alone.
"I don't answer to others. I have got to look at one face in the mirror every morning and have to be satisfied with what I'm looking at," Emmer said, when asked whether he worried that a lawsuit could hurt the party.
For Republicans, extending Pawlenty's time in office would presumably hold off a Democratic effort to raise taxes to address a budget deficit topping $6 billion. Democrats fear Pawlenty would bypass a sizable federal health grant by letting a Jan. 15 deadline go by and might press other issues such as requiring photo ID at the polls.
But Weaver, a former Republican state lawmaker who served as chief of staff to Pawlenty, and Weber both said they are concerned about a lack of public and donor support for legal action.
"Minnesota Republicans are in a good place," Weber said, noting the party's pending takeover of the state House and Senate and its defeat of veteran Democratic congressman Jim Oberstar in northern Minnesota. "Let's not risk damage to the party's image unless there's a very substantial reason to do so."
Dayton's team and state Democrats say any lawsuit would simply be a political move to delay Dayton's swearing-in.
Retiring state Rep. Marty Seifert, who backed Emmer after losing the GOP endorsement to him, said that donors he's talked to are skeptical about protracted litigation.
"I've had more than one donor tell me well, at least we're not going to have an all-Democratic state government," Seifert said. "It's a challenging economic environment for them to think about paying the very high cost of a bunch of recount attorneys."
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